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V-Lab

MD Sass Concentrated Value ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

15.08%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Week

15.47%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

16.28%

increased by 0.71%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of MD Sass Concentrated Value ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 4, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 52.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1600
11.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0802
1.69*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8982
17.35***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

52.3023
0.07

Persistence:

0.898

Half-life:

6 days