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MD Sass Concentrated Value ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

16.18%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

16.30%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Month

16.56%

decreased by 0.09%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:52 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of MD Sass Concentrated Value ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 4, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 89.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 89.11 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1233
3.92***
αARCH0.0863
0.49
βGARCH0.8951
4.12***
νDF89.1064
0.01

0.895

Persistence

6d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1233
3.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0863
0.49
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8951
4.12***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

89.1064
0.01

Persistence:

0.895

Half-life:

6 days