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V-Lab

MD Sass Concentrated Value ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

18.43%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

18.43%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

18.43%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of MD Sass Concentrated Value ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 4, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2915
3.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8138
14.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2228
0.00
δ

power

Transformation power

3.0000
5.89***

Persistence:

0.814

Half-life:

3 days