V-Lab
MD Sass Concentrated Value ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
18.43%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
18.43%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
18.43%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 4, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2915 | 3.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8138 | 14.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2228 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 3.0000 | 5.89*** |
Persistence:
0.814
Half-life:
3 days
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