V-Lab
Calamos Autocallable INM ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
13.47%
1 Week
12.82%
1 Month
12.29%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:45 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 25, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. The volatility power δ = 0.66 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2705 | 1.05 |
| αARCH | 0.0741 | 1.23 |
| βGARCH | 0.6287 | 2.00** |
| γleverage | 1.0000 | 21.47*** |
| δpower | 0.6635 | 0.72 |
0.676
Persistence2d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2705 | 1.05 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0741 | 1.23 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6287 | 2.00** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 21.47*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6635 | 0.72 |
Persistence:
0.676
Half-life:
2 days
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