V-Lab
Calamos Autocallable INM ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
13.53%
increased by 0.47%
1 Week
12.94%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
12.43%
decreased by 0.63%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:45 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 25, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.42) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0364 | 0.56 |
| αARCH | 0.0743 | 3.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6099 | 4.49*** |
| γleverage | 1.4247 | 4.95*** |
0.684
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0364 | 0.56 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0743 | 3.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6099 | 4.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.4247 | 4.95*** |
Persistence:
0.684
Half-life:
2 days
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