V-Lab
Calamos Autocallable INM ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
11.87%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
11.87%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
11.87%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 25, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026Hessian SE
Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 315 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~315 daysv = 7.46 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5592 | 0.51 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9978 | 14.93*** |
| νDF | 7.4609 | 0.14 |
0.998
Persistence315d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5592 | 0.51 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9978 | 14.93*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.4609 | 0.14 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
315 days
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