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V-Lab

Calamos Autocallable INM ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

11.87%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

11.87%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

11.87%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Calamos Autocallable INM ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 25, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026
Hessian SE

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 315 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~315 daysv = 7.46 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5592
0.51
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9978
14.93***
νDF7.4609
0.14

0.998

Persistence

315d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5592
0.51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9978
14.93***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.4609
0.14

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

315 days