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State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

20.11%

increased by 2.18%

1 Week

20.20%

increased by 2.27%

1 Month

20.54%

increased by 2.61%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 11.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2587
10.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0831
34.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9886
807.67***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

11.3424
4.14***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

60 days