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State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

18.86%

decreased by 0.95%

1 Week

18.99%

decreased by 0.82%

1 Month

19.46%

decreased by 0.35%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 11.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2672
10.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0833
34.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9886
797.88***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

11.2137
4.19***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

60 days