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State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

19.93%

increased by 1.75%

1 Week

20.03%

increased by 1.85%

1 Month

20.38%

increased by 2.20%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 11.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2573
10.38***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0833
34.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9885
797.18***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

11.2230
4.18***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

60 days