V-Lab
State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
20.11%
increased by 2.18%
1 Week
20.20%
increased by 2.27%
1 Month
20.54%
increased by 2.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 11.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2587 | 10.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0831 | 34.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9886 | 807.67*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 11.3424 | 4.14*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
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