V-Lab
State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
17.43%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
17.93%
increased by 0.42%
1 Month
18.74%
increased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8813 | 323.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1266 | 38.61*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1617 | 6.59*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8210 | 28.19*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0908 | 2.31** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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