V-Lab
State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
18.25%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
18.55%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
19.14%
increased by 0.60%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8809 | 321.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1269 | 38.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1621 | 6.60*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8225 | 28.51*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0886 | 2.27** |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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