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V-Lab

State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

15.94%

increased by 0.96%

1 Week

16.07%

increased by 1.09%

1 Month

16.55%

increased by 1.57%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2788
9.93***
αARCH0.0916
9.41***
βGARCH0.8900
80.92***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0009
3.62***

0.982

Persistence

37d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2788
9.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0916
9.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8900
80.92***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0009
3.62***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

37 days