Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026
1 Day
15.66%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
15.66%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
15.66%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 7, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.8783 | 3.51 | |
| 0.0000 | 0.00 | |
| 1.0000 | 7.74 | |
| 4.2715 | 0.06 | |
| -81.3237 | -0.59 | |
| 155.1001 | 1.17 | |
| -109.3336 | -0.82 |
Estimation Period:
Nov 21, 2025 to Jul 2, 2026
Nov 21, 2025 to Jul 2, 2026
Other Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs