V-Lab
Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
4.06%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
4.06%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
4.06%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 21, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5996 | 3.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 29.0427 | 0.66 |
| γ2 | -122.4249 | -1.79* |
| γ3 | 202.0121 | 3.40*** |
| γ4 | -230.6131 | -3.53*** |
| γ5 | 187.2975 | 3.63*** |
Persistence:
0.000
Half-life:
-
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