Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
12.78%
increased by 0.06%
1 Week
13.35%
increased by 0.63%
1 Month
13.93%
increased by 1.21%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 21, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8459 | 3.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0655 | 1.07 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6851 | 3.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.9459 | -0.62 |
Persistence:
0.751
Half-life:
2 days
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