Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
7.21%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
7.32%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
7.71%
increased by 0.51%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 21, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0249 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | -0.2480 | -0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9744 | 47.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1122 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
27 days
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