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V-Lab

Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

1.54%

increased by 0.07%

1 Week

1.55%

increased by 0.08%

1 Month

1.58%

increased by 0.11%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 5, 2010 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 127 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

-0.0208
-7.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1558
33.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9945
1,923.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0060
-1.10

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

127 days