Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
1.54%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
1.55%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
1.58%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 5, 2010 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 127 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0208 | -7.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1558 | 33.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9945 | 1,923.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0060 | -1.10 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
127 days
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