State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
14.07%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
14.26%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
14.94%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 1993 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0065 | 2.02** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1568 | 30.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9674 | 591.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1461 | -34.91*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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