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State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

8.84%

decreased by 1.30%

1 Week

8.77%

decreased by 1.37%

1 Month

8.61%

decreased by 1.53%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 15, 2004 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 65% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.77 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 65% more than positive returnsδ = 0.77 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0452
8.99***
αARCH0.2357
13.77***
βGARCH0.7399
40.84***
γleverage0.3138
7.28***
δpower0.7697
5.33***

0.926

Persistence

9d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0452
8.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2357
13.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7399
40.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3138
7.28***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.7697
5.33***

Persistence:

0.926

Half-life:

9 days