V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
8.84%
1 Week
8.77%
1 Month
8.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 15, 2004 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 65% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.77 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0452 | 8.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.2357 | 13.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7399 | 40.84*** |
| γleverage | 0.3138 | 7.28*** |
| δpower | 0.7697 | 5.33*** |
0.926
Persistence9d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0452 | 8.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2357 | 13.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7399 | 40.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3138 | 7.28*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.7697 | 5.33*** |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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