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Invesco DB Agriculture Fund Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

15.13%

increased by 0.53%

1 Week

14.74%

increased by 0.14%

1 Month

13.43%

decreased by 1.17%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Agriculture Fund APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. The volatility power δ = 1.18 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 25-day half-lifeδ = 1.18 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0106
4.21***
αARCH0.1287
9.94***
βGARCH0.8687
68.01***
γleverage-0.0125
-0.34
δpower1.1752
3.53***

0.973

Persistence

25d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0106
4.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1287
9.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8687
68.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0125
-0.34
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1752
3.53***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days