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V-Lab

Invesco DB Agriculture Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

13.31%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Week

13.34%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Month

13.48%

decreased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Agriculture Fund GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0064
14.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0623
18.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9365
494.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0101
-1.91*

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

110 days