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Invesco DB Agriculture Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

10.73%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

10.81%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Month

11.11%

increased by 0.11%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Agriculture Fund GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~110 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0063
3.45***
αARCH0.0617
4.50***
βGARCH0.9345
123.33***
γleverage-0.0050
-0.23

0.994

Persistence

110d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0063
3.45***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0617
4.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9345
123.33***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0050
-0.23

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

110 days