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Invesco DB Agriculture Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

1 Day

14.67%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

14.69%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

14.75%

decreased by 0.27%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Agriculture Fund GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~111 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0063
3.45***
αARCH0.0619
4.50***
βGARCH0.9344
123.29***
γleverage-0.0052
-0.24

0.994

Persistence

111d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0063
3.45***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0619
4.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9344
123.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0052
-0.24

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

111 days