V-Lab
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
13.31%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
13.34%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
13.48%
decreased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0064 | 14.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0623 | 18.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9365 | 494.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0101 | -1.91* |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
110 days
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