Invesco DB Agriculture Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
10.73%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
10.81%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
11.11%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~110 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0063 | 3.45*** |
| αARCH | 0.0617 | 4.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9345 | 123.33*** |
| γleverage | -0.0050 | -0.23 |
0.994
Persistence110d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0063 | 3.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0617 | 4.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9345 | 123.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0050 | -0.23 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
110 days
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