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V-Lab

Invesco DB Agriculture Fund Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

11.79%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Week

11.90%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Month

12.28%

increased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Agriculture Fund SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 55 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3717
5.46***
αARCH0.0611
7.74***
βGARCH0.9264
104.55***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0057
2.25**

0.988

Persistence

55d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3717
5.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0611
7.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9264
104.55***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0057
2.25**

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

55 days