iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
19.87%
increased by 1.49%
1 Week
20.08%
increased by 1.70%
1 Month
20.75%
increased by 2.37%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7199 | 6.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0927 | 7.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8747 | 56.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1233 | -5.94*** |
| γ2 | 0.1856 | 5.86*** |
| γ3 | -0.1059 | -3.49*** |
| γ4 | 0.0719 | 2.15** |
| γ5 | -0.0190 | -0.65 |
| γ6 | -0.0326 | -0.96 |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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