V-Lab
iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
16.11%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
16.72%
increased by 0.29%
1 Month
18.57%
increased by 2.14%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7286 | 6.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0938 | 7.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8740 | 56.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1213 | -5.89*** |
| γ2 | 0.1831 | 5.86*** |
| γ3 | -0.1064 | -3.59*** |
| γ4 | 0.0769 | 2.35** |
| γ5 | -0.0315 | -1.15 |
| γ6 | -0.0084 | -0.48 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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