V-Lab
iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
16.43%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
16.69%
increased by 0.33%
1 Month
17.66%
increased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0270 | 20.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0836 | 34.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9076 | 369.09*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
78 days
Other iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF Analyses
Other GARCH Analyses on ETFs