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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Japan ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

17.10%

increased by 1.01%

1 Week

17.29%

increased by 1.20%

1 Month

18.00%

increased by 1.91%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Japan ETF GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 114 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~114 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0200
5.09***
αARCH0.0895
10.15***
βGARCH0.9044
109.20***

0.994

Persistence

114d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0200
5.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0895
10.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9044
109.20***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

114 days