iShares MSCI Japan ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
17.10%
increased by 1.01%
1 Week
17.29%
increased by 1.20%
1 Month
18.00%
increased by 1.91%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 114 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~114 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0200 | 5.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.0895 | 10.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9044 | 109.20*** |
0.994
Persistence114d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0200 | 5.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0895 | 10.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9044 | 109.20*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
114 days
Other iShares MSCI Japan ETF Analyses
Other GARCH Analyses on ETFs