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V-Lab

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

14.32%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Week

14.58%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

15.48%

increased by 0.62%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI EAFE ETF GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 27, 2001 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 39 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 39 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0295
19.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1149
36.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8676
277.18***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

39 days