State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
15.75%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
15.83%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
16.13%
decreased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 49-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0191 | 5.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.0831 | 9.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9027 | 95.69*** |
0.986
Persistence49d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0191 | 5.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0831 | 9.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9027 | 95.69*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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