V-Lab
State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
20.71%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
20.65%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Month
20.45%
decreased by 0.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 45% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0352 | 30.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1585 | 34.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7823 | 242.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0711 | 8.73*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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