V-Lab
State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
15.76%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
15.97%
increased by 0.21%
1 Month
16.69%
increased by 0.93%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 32-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0347 | 2.01** |
| αARCH | 0.2125 | 9.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7660 | 54.26*** |
0.979
Persistence32d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0347 | 2.01** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2125 | 9.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7660 | 54.26*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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