V-Lab
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
14.83%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
15.15%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
16.28%
increased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0255 | 8.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2203 | 52.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7720 | 261.16*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
Other State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF Analyses
Other MEM Analyses on ETFs