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V-Lab

State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

14.83%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Week

15.15%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Month

16.28%

increased by 0.81%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0255
8.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2203
52.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7720
261.16***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

90 days