State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
17.50%
increased by 1.25%
1 Week
17.87%
increased by 1.62%
1 Month
19.09%
increased by 2.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 34 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 34 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 34-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0510 | 2.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.2367 | 12.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7428 | 52.01*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0510 | 2.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2367 | 12.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7428 | 52.01*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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