V-Lab
iShares China Large-Cap ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
16.10%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
17.37%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
21.28%
increased by 4.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2004 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1062 | 10.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2820 | 40.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6988 | 142.96*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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