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V-Lab

iShares China Large-Cap ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

21.37%

increased by 0.94%

1 Week

21.49%

increased by 1.06%

1 Month

22.07%

increased by 1.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares China Large-Cap ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 8, 2004 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 224% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 224% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow61
αARCH0.0354
2.06**
βGARCH0.8569
40.71***
γleverage0.0795
3.39***
λ₁tau intercept0.5308
4.02***
λ₂forecast adj.0.8436
9.78***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.932

Persistence

10d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0354
2.06**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8569
40.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0795
3.39***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.5308
4.02***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8436
9.78***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.932

Half-life:

10 days