V-Lab
iShares China Large-Cap ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
20.94%
increased by 0.71%
1 Week
21.70%
increased by 1.47%
1 Month
22.92%
increased by 2.69%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 10:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2004 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 222% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0361 | 6.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8553 | 146.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0802 | 12.68*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.5049 | 0.39 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7808 | 0.39 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0724 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
Other iShares China Large-Cap ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs