V-Lab
iShares China Large-Cap ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
18.88%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
19.67%
increased by 0.39%
1 Month
21.11%
increased by 1.83%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 226% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0356 | 6.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8560 | 146.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0804 | 12.06*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.5370 | 0.28 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8431 | 0.28 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
Other iShares China Large-Cap ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs