iShares China Large-Cap ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
21.37%
increased by 0.94%
1 Week
21.49%
increased by 1.06%
1 Month
22.07%
increased by 1.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2004 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 224% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 224% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.0354 | 2.06** |
| βGARCH | 0.8569 | 40.71*** |
| γleverage | 0.0795 | 3.39*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.5308 | 4.02*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8436 | 9.78*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.932
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0354 | 2.06** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8569 | 40.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0795 | 3.39*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.5308 | 4.02*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8436 | 9.78*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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