V-Lab
Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
9.80%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
9.72%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
9.37%
decreased by 0.46%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 9, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.4100 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0346 | 11.96*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9392 | 107.58*** |
0.410
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4100 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0346 | 11.96*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9392 | 107.58*** |
Persistence:
0.410
Half-life:
1 days
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