Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
10.38%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
10.38%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
10.38%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 9, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 106 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.4277 | 6.94*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.000
Persistence0d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.4277 | 6.94*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.000
Half-life:
0 days
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