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V-Lab

Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

1.78%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Week

80,780.16%

increased by 80,777.96%

1 Month

4,113,090,808,625,552,000,000,000.00%

increased by 4,113,090,808,625,552,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 9, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.02
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6672
347.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
45.40***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
1.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1390
18.01***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0009
0.02

Persistence:

0.917

Half-life:

8 days