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V-Lab

Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

10.06%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

10.02%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

9.90%

decreased by 0.16%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 9, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0310
0.04
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2795
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2420
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.016

Half-life:

0 days