V-Lab
Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.06%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
10.02%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
9.90%
decreased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 9, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0310 | 0.04 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2795 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2420 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.016
Half-life:
0 days
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