V-Lab
Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
1.78%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
80,780.16%
increased by 80,777.96%
1 Month
4,113,090,808,625,552,000,000,000.00%
increased by 4,113,090,808,625,552,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 9, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6672 | 347.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 45.40*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 1.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1390 | 18.01*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0009 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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