V-Lab
Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
10.09%
1 Week
10.16%
1 Month
10.43%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 9, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 67 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 67 days. The volatility power δ = 0.61 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0094 | 1.13 |
| αARCH | 0.0467 | 2.29** |
| βGARCH | 0.9525 | 51.22*** |
| γleverage | 0.3175 | 0.62 |
| δpower | 0.6145 | 1.22 |
0.990
Persistence67d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0094 | 1.13 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0467 | 2.29** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9525 | 51.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3175 | 0.62 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6145 | 1.22 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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