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V-Lab

Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

10.09%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Week

10.16%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Month

10.43%

decreased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 9, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 67 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 67 days. The volatility power δ = 0.61 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 67-day half-lifeδ = 0.61 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0094
1.13
αARCH0.0467
2.29**
βGARCH0.9525
51.22***
γleverage0.3175
0.62
δpower0.6145
1.22

0.990

Persistence

67d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0094
1.13
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0467
2.29**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9525
51.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3175
0.62
δ

power

Transformation power

0.6145
1.22

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days