Baron Technology ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
28.21%
decreased by 1.85%
1 Week
26.85%
decreased by 3.21%
1 Month
23.04%
decreased by 7.02%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. The volatility power δ = 0.65 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0412 | 6.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2301 | 9.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7699 | 50.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0513 | -0.84 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6518 | 6.27*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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