V-Lab
iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
19.99%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Week
20.06%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Month
20.32%
decreased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 5, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 81% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.83 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0258 | 25.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1256 | 40.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8655 | 317.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1602 | 12.93*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8348 | 33.92*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
51 days
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