V-Lab
Invesco DB Energy Fund Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
34.03%
1 Week
32.05%
1 Month
26.37%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 18% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.58 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0250 | 4.68*** |
| αARCH | 0.1533 | 9.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8419 | 54.20*** |
| γleverage | 0.1393 | 3.22*** |
| δpower | 0.5767 | 2.55** |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0250 | 4.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1533 | 9.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8419 | 54.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1393 | 3.22*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5767 | 2.55** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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