Invesco DB Energy Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
41.31%
decreased by 1.76%
1 Week
41.27%
decreased by 1.80%
1 Month
41.09%
decreased by 1.98%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 159 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0403 | 4.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0666 | 46.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9957 | 1,131.43*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.2397 | 7.53*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
159 days
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