V-Lab
Invesco DB Energy Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
42.03%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
41.98%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
41.79%
decreased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 159 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~159 daysv = 7.44 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0683 | 1.22 |
| αARCH | 0.0675 | 11.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9956 | 279.60*** |
| νDF | 7.4404 | 1.79* |
0.996
Persistence159d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0683 | 1.22 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0675 | 11.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9956 | 279.60*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.4404 | 1.79* |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
159 days
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