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V-Lab

Invesco DB Energy Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

40.07%

decreased by 2.08%

1 Week

40.03%

decreased by 2.12%

1 Month

39.88%

decreased by 2.27%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Energy Fund GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 154 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0028
4.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0679
47.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9955
1,071.59***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.4099
7.15***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

154 days