V-Lab
Invesco DB Energy Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
41.54%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
41.49%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Month
41.31%
decreased by 0.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 158 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0189 | 4.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0666 | 46.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9956 | 1,121.21*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.2490 | 7.49*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
158 days
Other Invesco DB Energy Fund Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs