V-Lab
Invesco DB Energy Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
40.07%
decreased by 2.08%
1 Week
40.03%
decreased by 2.12%
1 Month
39.88%
decreased by 2.27%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 154 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0028 | 4.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0679 | 47.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9955 | 1,071.59*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.4099 | 7.15*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
154 days
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