V-Lab
Invesco DB Energy Fund EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
39.76%
decreased by 2.29%
1 Week
39.38%
decreased by 2.67%
1 Month
38.08%
decreased by 3.97%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 52% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0232 | 13.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1682 | 21.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9820 | 842.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0349 | -5.58*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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