Skip to main content
V-Lab

Invesco DB Energy Fund Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

49.09%

decreased by 2.16%

1 Week

48.97%

decreased by 2.28%

1 Month

48.48%

decreased by 2.77%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Energy Fund SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0615
5.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0800
6.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9100
74.95***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0032
1.10

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

69 days