V-Lab
Invesco DB Energy Fund Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
49.09%
decreased by 2.16%
1 Week
48.97%
decreased by 2.28%
1 Month
48.48%
decreased by 2.77%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0615 | 5.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0800 | 6.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9100 | 74.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0032 | 1.10 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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