V-Lab
Invesco DB Energy Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
39.81%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
39.79%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Month
39.72%
decreased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~92 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9035 | 4.69*** |
| αARCH | 0.0809 | 7.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9116 | 79.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0016 | -1.48 |
0.993
Persistence92d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9035 | 4.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0809 | 7.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9116 | 79.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0016 | -1.48 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
92 days
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