V-Lab
Invesco DB Energy Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
45.55%
decreased by 1.93%
1 Week
45.46%
decreased by 2.02%
1 Month
45.10%
decreased by 2.38%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9075 | 4.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0813 | 7.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9113 | 79.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0017 | -1.48 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
93 days
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