V-Lab
Invesco DB Energy Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
39.36%
decreased by 1.73%
1 Week
39.34%
decreased by 1.75%
1 Month
39.28%
decreased by 1.81%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9048 | 4.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0814 | 7.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9110 | 78.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0016 | -1.47 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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