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Invesco DB Energy Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

39.81%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Week

39.79%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Month

39.72%

decreased by 0.50%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Energy Fund S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~92 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9035
4.69***
αARCH0.0809
7.14***
βGARCH0.9116
79.42***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0016
-1.48

0.993

Persistence

92d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9035
4.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0809
7.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9116
79.42***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0016
-1.48

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

92 days