V-Lab
Invesco DB Energy Fund GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
48.47%
decreased by 2.18%
1 Week
48.25%
decreased by 2.40%
1 Month
47.44%
decreased by 3.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0355 | 15.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0808 | 25.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9110 | 287.65*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
Other Invesco DB Energy Fund Analyses
Other GARCH Analyses on ETFs