iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
18.46%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
18.68%
increased by 0.21%
1 Month
19.48%
increased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 115 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~115 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0240 | 5.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.0973 | 11.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8967 | 115.55*** |
0.994
Persistence115d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0240 | 5.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0973 | 11.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8967 | 115.55*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
115 days
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