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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

17.97%

increased by 0.86%

1 Week

18.22%

increased by 1.11%

1 Month

19.09%

increased by 1.98%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0077
0.99
αARCH0.0854
11.05***
βGARCH0.9049
125.76***
γleverage0.5102
5.38***

0.990

Persistence

71d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0077
0.99
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0854
11.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9049
125.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5102
5.38***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

71 days