V-Lab
iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
17.97%
increased by 0.86%
1 Week
18.22%
increased by 1.11%
1 Month
19.09%
increased by 1.98%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0077 | 0.99 |
| αARCH | 0.0854 | 11.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9049 | 125.76*** |
| γleverage | 0.5102 | 5.38*** |
0.990
Persistence71d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0077 | 0.99 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0854 | 11.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9049 | 125.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5102 | 5.38*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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