iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
16.13%
increased by 0.36%
1 Week
16.87%
increased by 1.10%
1 Month
19.20%
increased by 3.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.69) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0195 | 6.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1091 | 44.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8688 | 425.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6941 | 26.80*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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