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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

14.32%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Week

15.09%

increased by 0.47%

1 Month

16.37%

increased by 1.75%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0293
4.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8082
129.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1382
14.60***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0257
5.01***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0626
4.86***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9276
66.30***

Persistence:

0.907

Half-life:

7 days