V-Lab
iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
19.34%
increased by 3.73%
1 Week
19.28%
increased by 3.67%
1 Month
19.62%
increased by 4.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0296 | 1.20 |
| βGARCH | 0.8092 | 50.35*** |
| γleverage | 0.1374 | 4.75*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0254 | 2.17** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0614 | 3.50*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9289 | 45.40*** |
0.907
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0296 | 1.20 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8092 | 50.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1374 | 4.75*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0254 | 2.17** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0614 | 3.50*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9289 | 45.40*** |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
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