V-Lab
iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
14.32%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
15.09%
increased by 0.47%
1 Month
16.37%
increased by 1.75%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0293 | 4.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8082 | 129.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1382 | 14.60*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0257 | 5.01*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0626 | 4.86*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9276 | 66.30*** |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
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