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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

19.34%

increased by 3.73%

1 Week

19.28%

increased by 3.67%

1 Month

19.62%

increased by 4.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0296
1.20
βGARCH0.8092
50.35***
γleverage0.1374
4.75***
λ₁tau intercept0.0254
2.17**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0614
3.50***
λ₃tau persistence0.9289
45.40***

0.907

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0296
1.20
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8092
50.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1374
4.75***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0254
2.17**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0614
3.50***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9289
45.40***

Persistence:

0.907

Half-life:

7 days