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iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

19.63%

decreased by 1.08%

1 Week

19.59%

decreased by 1.12%

1 Month

19.74%

decreased by 0.97%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 1996 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0294
1.19
βGARCH0.8097
50.56***
γleverage0.1373
4.77***
λ₁tau intercept0.0255
2.17**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0613
3.50***
λ₃tau persistence0.9289
45.36***

0.908

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0294
1.19
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8097
50.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1373
4.77***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0255
2.17**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0613
3.50***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9289
45.36***

Persistence:

0.908

Half-life:

7 days