V-Lab
iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
20.16%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Week
20.25%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Month
20.85%
decreased by 0.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0297 | 4.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8081 | 127.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1364 | 14.40*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0258 | 4.98*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0622 | 4.82*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9281 | 66.36*** |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
Other iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs