iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
19.63%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Week
19.59%
decreased by 1.12%
1 Month
19.74%
decreased by 0.97%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1996 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0294 | 1.19 |
| βGARCH | 0.8097 | 50.56*** |
| γleverage | 0.1373 | 4.77*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0255 | 2.17** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0613 | 3.50*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9289 | 45.36*** |
0.908
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0294 | 1.19 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8097 | 50.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1373 | 4.77*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0255 | 2.17** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0613 | 3.50*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9289 | 45.36*** |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
Other iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs