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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

20.16%

decreased by 1.10%

1 Week

20.25%

decreased by 1.01%

1 Month

20.85%

decreased by 0.41%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0297
4.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8081
127.82***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1364
14.40***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0258
4.98***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0622
4.82***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9281
66.36***

Persistence:

0.906

Half-life:

7 days