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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

18.23%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Week

18.53%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Month

19.48%

increased by 0.71%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3183
4.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1102
8.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8559
66.79***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.0149
-0.74
γ20.0583
2.14**
γ3-0.0880
-5.49***
γ40.0660
4.26***
γ5-0.0236
-2.12**

Persistence:

0.966

Half-life:

20 days