iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
14.79%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
15.40%
increased by 0.30%
1 Month
17.20%
increased by 2.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3289 | 4.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1102 | 8.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8558 | 66.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0143 | -0.72 |
| γ2 | 0.0577 | 2.12** |
| γ3 | -0.0880 | -5.47*** |
| γ4 | 0.0657 | 4.23*** |
| γ5 | -0.0232 | -2.07** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
Other iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs