V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
12.28%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
12.67%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
13.84%
increased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7071 | 4.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1116 | 9.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8510 | 63.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0581 | 1.83* |
| γ2 | -0.1459 | -3.31*** |
| γ3 | 0.1642 | 6.55*** |
| γ4 | -0.1389 | -5.80*** |
| γ5 | 0.1028 | 3.47*** |
| γ6 | -0.0446 | -1.51 |
| γ7 | -0.0013 | -0.06 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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