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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

12.78%

decreased by 0.91%

1 Week

13.19%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Month

14.45%

increased by 0.76%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 1993 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.61) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1165
29.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8511
201.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6077
18.51***

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

21 days