State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
12.78%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Week
13.19%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Month
14.45%
increased by 0.76%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 1993 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.61) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1165 | 29.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8511 | 201.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6077 | 18.51*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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