V-Lab
iShares MSCI Germany ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
15.22%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
15.69%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
17.25%
increased by 1.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.65) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0094 | 3.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0864 | 37.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8956 | 383.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6496 | 24.97*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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