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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Germany ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

15.22%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

15.69%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

17.25%

increased by 1.44%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Germany ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.65) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0094
3.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0864
37.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8956
383.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6496
24.97***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days