iShares MSCI Germany ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
16.41%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
16.34%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Month
16.12%
decreased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 68% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.13 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0439 | 30.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1627 | 47.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8234 | 233.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2250 | 27.60*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1284 | 29.84*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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