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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Germany ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

16.41%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

16.34%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Month

16.12%

decreased by 0.43%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Germany ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 68% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.13 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0439
30.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1627
47.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8234
233.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2250
27.60***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1284
29.84***

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days