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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Germany ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

15.77%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

16.49%

increased by 0.57%

1 Month

18.21%

increased by 2.29%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Germany ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0139
3.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8554
249.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1272
26.06***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1470
2.65***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3814
2.61***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5498
3.21***

Persistence:

0.933

Half-life:

10 days