iShares MSCI Germany ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
16.80%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
17.44%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
18.54%
increased by 1.27%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0142 | 3.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8552 | 249.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1271 | 25.99*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1464 | 2.66*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3795 | 2.61*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5520 | 3.24*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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