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V-Lab

abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

25.14%

decreased by 2.04%

1 Week

25.09%

decreased by 2.09%

1 Month

24.54%

decreased by 2.64%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 2009 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 62% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

111
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0915
13.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7666
42.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0350
-2.23**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.3152
0.08
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7330
0.08
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.841

Half-life:

4 days