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abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

27.31%

increased by 0.29%

1 Week

27.00%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

26.41%

decreased by 0.61%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 2009 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow86
αARCH0.0829
3.84***
βGARCH0.8608
28.60***
γleverage-0.0297
-1.30
λ₁tau intercept0.1633
1.91*
λ₂forecast adj.0.8693
5.42***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.929

Persistence

9d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0829
3.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8608
28.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0297
-1.30
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1633
1.91*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8693
5.42***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.929

Half-life:

9 days