V-Lab
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
25.53%
increased by 5.55%
1 Week
25.43%
increased by 5.45%
1 Month
25.16%
increased by 5.18%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 71 | |
| αARCH | 0.0812 | 3.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8587 | 26.71*** |
| γleverage | -0.0311 | -1.30 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.2014 | 2.60*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8231 | 4.62*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.924
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0812 | 3.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8587 | 26.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0311 | -1.30 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2014 | 2.60*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8231 | 4.62*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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