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abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

26.71%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Week

26.77%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

25.71%

decreased by 1.19%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 2009 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow71
αARCH0.0809
3.73***
βGARCH0.8590
26.82***
γleverage-0.0309
-1.30
λ₁tau intercept0.1929
2.55**
λ₂forecast adj.0.8347
5.00***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.924

Persistence

9d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0809
3.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8590
26.82***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0309
-1.30
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1929
2.55**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8347
5.00***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.924

Half-life:

9 days