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abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

20.69%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Week

21.13%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

22.23%

increased by 1.14%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 2009 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow86
αARCH0.0833
3.83***
βGARCH0.8621
28.65***
γleverage-0.0307
-1.34
λ₁tau intercept0.1734
1.91*
λ₂forecast adj.0.8558
4.74***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.930

Persistence

10d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0833
3.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8621
28.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0307
-1.34
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1734
1.91*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8558
4.74***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.930

Half-life:

10 days