V-Lab
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
25.06%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Week
25.22%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Month
24.38%
decreased by 1.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Sep 11, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 71 | |
| αARCH | 0.0809 | 3.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8589 | 26.77*** |
| γleverage | -0.0310 | -1.30 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1945 | 2.56** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8324 | 4.94*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.924
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0809 | 3.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8589 | 26.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0310 | -1.30 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1945 | 2.56** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8324 | 4.94*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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