V-Lab
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
25.14%
1 Week
25.09%
1 Month
24.54%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 62% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 111 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0915 | 13.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7666 | 42.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0350 | -2.23** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3152 | 0.08 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7330 | 0.08 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.841
Half-life:
4 days
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