V-Lab
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
25.74%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Week
25.49%
decreased by 1.06%
1 Month
24.59%
decreased by 1.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 39 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 39 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 39-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0212 | 3.52*** |
| αARCH | 0.0676 | 4.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9146 | 52.48*** |
0.982
Persistence39d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0212 | 3.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0676 | 4.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9146 | 52.48*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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